Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Steroid Works Only for 24 Hours

Dear Readers,

When markets closed this Friday, European leaders sat down and decided to show their muscles (read my last post). Their statements were suggesting they are only next to God and can control markets, particularly that of Mr. Sarkozy. They speedily drafted a 'bailout' package to not only 'cure' Greek Debt Crisis but also their language suggested how angry they were on Euro sellers. What more, the Iron Man Mr Trichet (ECB) also had an about turn on his recent statement of not buying Greek Debt which shows how 'independent' is European Central Bank! Indeed! the 'announcement' of a massive rescue fund did have its effect but for how long? 24 Hours or even less! Euro is back to the territories (in fact below) where it was before the announcement. No wonder I had my doubt on the 'effect' of this 'package'. Also, I read this interesting piece on Bloomberg by John Glover who terms it as "Ponzi Game at the Highest Level". Here is a link to that article which I recommend highly.

Now, it seems all the euphoria that made almost all stock markets around the world  and Euro to rally like no tomorrow was in fact an expected short squeeze and now it looks like all that is going to reverse. Interesting times we have! Let us wait and see how and what these leaders decide as their next step(s).

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Once Again Governments and Interventions

Dear Readers,

In my last post of March 23 I shared my view of how bearish I felt then and called that time as 'the beginning' of new deflation era. Things really got bad in the meantime and stock and commodity markets around the world have fallen sharply. The ostensible reason is Greek crisis but I do not understand the logic at all! If the markets are falling in panic because of Greek crisis then why were they going up like no tomorrow just a month or so back? Situation in Greece and fear of a crisis there is not a news anymore! For at least few months mainstream media is full of Greek debt problems and I did not see many analysts optimistic about some painless solution. So, if it had to be this Greek Crisis as actual cause behind current market meltdown then we should have seen at least six months of bearish trend. No, its NOT the Greek Gods that are responsible, in my opinion, its what had to happen and Greece is just an excuse.

However, my point today in this post is yet another foolish attempt by governments across Europe to 'stabilize' the system. European leaders gathered in an 'emergency' meeting today and decided to take 'measures' that will 'contain' this crisis from spreading over and save Euro, reports Bloomberg. How they do it? They have decided to set up an 'emergency fund' to 'halt the spread of Greece's fiscal woes' ! OMG! Where were they and doing what for so long? Mistakes after mistakes is what politicians do to 'show' their 'abilities' of 'preventing' problems and they mostly end up being problems themselves. Markets will do what they will do no matter what these leaders do.

However, I don't criticize their 'efforts' for one reason. These leaders have to show they are 'at least' doing something even though they know the outcome. They just can not sit down and wait for things to happen as majority of general population want their leaders to take steps. This is more a political compulsion than need of the hour. Let us see how things turn out. 

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