Nifty Analysis as on 29th July 2008

Dear Friends,

Its not easy to tell about the Stock Markets direction and see how it turned out (at the time of writing this post) for US markets. I'll come to that later, for now read about Nifty...

For Nifty, Yesterday it was 38.2% and today it was 50%. Yes I am talking about the supports Nifty was taking. Look at today's chart and you can see yourself. I have following observations:

1. Nifty broke yesterday's low and took support at 50% retracement of previous rise.
2. Nifty broke the 34 Day EMA support and is now around 13 Day EMA.
3. The volume for today is slightly up.
4. The FIIs and DIIs are both net sellers in today's trade.

Conclusion: If Nifty manages to sustain above today's low, it can show a bounce back. If it goes down below today's low, then the next support is around 4080 levels (61.8% retracement). As I told here yesterday, I am still bearish on the larger trend.

I have to mention that at the time of writing this post, I see US markets kind of rallying. I was almost sure yesterday that there will be further downside in US and I am still for it.It looks like yesterday's sharp fall in Dow Jones and S&P 500 made it oversold and now its a very small rally undergoing.

Yours...