Sunday, September 7, 2008

Weekly Analysis of Nifty Future

Last week was a week of perfect indecision - what the candlestick chart of Nifty Future suggests, a doji. Bulls tried their best and so did bears but no one had a decisive upper hand. The volume however remained average.

Looking at the Weekly Chart of Nifty Future, the Main Downtrend Line since Jan this year is still holding and acting as resistance. One more thing to note down is Nifty Future is unable to get past 34 Period EMA on weekly chart and if we take into account the May month high and July month low, the 61.8% retracement (a very important Fibonacci number) around 4680 level is also near this 34 EMA and very close to the Main Downtrend Line.

The short term trend is up if we take the July low and August high as Nifty Future bounced from the 50% retracement level of this up move.

My view is that for the coming week there can be an upside which may find resistance at around 4500 level. If it comes then the next level to watch out for would be 4680. Considering the main trend as down, I think the chances of that are low but if it eventually comes and weekly closing is above it, then the Bear Market would be in danger. For support 4320 is going to be first crucial level for next week, breaching it, the next support would be again at 4207.

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