Sunday, November 9, 2008

S&P 500 Analysis on Weekly and Daily Charts

It looks like high volatility has become more a norm than an exception. Last week US Markets fluctuated up and down but settled somewhat in the middle. I present my views on S&P 500 Futures based on Weekly and Daily Charts. Let me first put the common details regarding indicators on charts:

13 Period EMA - Green Curved Line
34 Period EMA - Red Curved Line
55 Period EMA - Blue Curved Line
200 Period SMA - Purple Curved Line
Trend Line - Green Slanting Straight Line

Weekly Chart:
S&P 500 Weekly Chart 7th Nov 2008
Looking at the Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Futures, I observed following:
  1. For some good time(start of June) S&P 500 Future is trading consistelntly below 13 Period EMA which shows how strong the selling force is.
  2. RSI 14 has been indicating oversold state for quite some time but still price is unable to show some good bounce.
Looking at the Weekly chart, I come to the conclusion that buyers have become very weak and even dead-cat bounces are turning out to be few-sessions events. If at all the bulls manage to steer the index up, there will be significant resistance at 1077 area considering it is previous important support and also near 13 EMA on Weekly.

Daily Chart: S&P 500 Daily Chart 7th Nov 2008
Looking at the Daily Chart of S&P 500 Futures, I come to following observation:
  1. After closing above 13 EMA on Daily on 28th Oct, it got resistance at 34 EMA on 4th and 5th Nov and falling from there it is again below 13 EMA.
  2. The 34 EMA resistance coincided with Downtrend Line, so making it a significant point of resistance.
  3. RSI for 14 days does not confirm oversold theory, in fact, if we see previous data, it looks like on a short term basis, it is fairly poised.
Looking at the Daily Chart does not convince me of an oversold situation and so I will refrain from buying into dips and maintain that selling rallies is still better idea.

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