First quite some time ( a month and half) I have been busy in some project which has taken the most of my time and that is why I can't post frequently. However, I am sure very soon (as early as 15 days) I will be able to regain the frequency of earlier times or may be even increase it few hertz. Today I stole few hours to analyze markets and so I am posting here.
Short Term trend - Hourly Chart
Looking at the Hourly Chart of Nifty Future following is my view:
- Sort term - its in uptrend and this passing week we saw Nifty Future retracing to 50% or so of its latest uptrend and resuming up move. This means if the up move continues, we can see 3243 in few sessions as this is Fibonacci target.
- The rising wedge on hourly was broken last week and that is something bulls should be careful about.
Looking at the Daily Chart, following is my view:
- Its nostalgic. Its Deja Vu. Yes, see how rising channels and wedges in primary trend bear market end up (see circles on chart during Mar - April 08, July-Sept 08 and this latest one - Nov-Dec-Jan). Does history repeat itself? may be. Even if it does not repeat, it at least does enough to make us feel nostalgic. This rising wedge on Nifty Future is indicative of how bad future may be for bulls, if History once again Repeats itself.
- The Main Downtrend Line is still holding and this month it will complete one year. As we have seen in past, this line is BIG resistance in every bear rally and since Sept 08 we have not even seen Nifty Future coming close to this line. However, on its first anniversary, we may get a kiss on this line. Bears know what to do then.
- Its similar to Daily Chart with one addition: there seems to be a triangle forming which can prove to be a continuation of previous down trend.
- The bigger resistance is 34 EMA and in few weeks I expect it to go below near to 3400 levels. Nifty Future has been behaving scary for quite some time whenever it nears this 34 EMA on weekly chart.
For Long Term future of Nifty Future hangs precariously and depends on many things including fundamentals. As many economists have turned positive on economy for after next year (2010) there should be a bottom in second half of 2009 as Equity Markets are believed to be six months in advance of fundamentals.
Having said the above, my worry is still about how US handles the situation. The way US and other govts world over are doing currently is NOT good in my opinion. The best solution would have been a hundred percent Free Market correction. I don't believe how all world leaders and policy makers are pumping in full force to REINFLATE the bubble of credit originated from excess of fiat money. Cause of a Disease CAN NOT be its cure. Its like trying to cure a drug addict with extra supply of drugs! God bless these policy makers.