Outlook on 15th August

Hello Friends,
After two days of absence I am here again. Well, I have a history of "mis-titling" and today is no exception as the title of this post may be ambiguous for some people. Why? well, for Indians 15th August is more a proper noun than a date - its the Independence Day ! and the title is - outlook on 15th August, which may also mean outlook on independence day !!! Now, when I have started talking about it, let me put some real outlook of mine on the specific day. It was a historical day when fate of Indian masses transferred hands from the British to "our own men" and we became "Independent" (really?). Being an Indian I am happy to be free and independent. Congratulations to all fellow free and independent Indians.

Now, let me come to some talk about the actual meaning of the title - the outlook as on 15th of August 2008. Looking technically I warned people here in my last post that there is a divergence in Nifty and Nifty Futures and going ahead we may see further downside. Yeterday you saw the drama unfold somewhat.

As for fundamentals, I am very confused these days when I see and here people saying some real absurdities. Some say market has "significantly" bottomed out ! Some say the crude is falling and it means stocks will rally now ! For those bottom seekers my only advice is fundamentally the bad days for economy have just started and there can be worse days ahead. In my humble opinion, this time it is going to be longer duration of trouble before economic growth takes off again.

For the crude "is inversely proportional to" equities believers I have only sympathy. Those morons do not understand the simple fact that crude is falling as the demand is slowing down because of lesser economic activities and how can possibily the equities rally in an ongoing slowdown (recession in some parts of world)? Some of my friends who comment on markets have termed these rallies as "suckers rally" and I think they are absolutely right.

Yesterday I received a mail from my respected Mr. Rameshraja who has a very good understanding of Technicals and fundamentals of stock markets and runs a trading calls service at icharts.in (www.icharts.in is a charts provider site and I also use its charts for my posts here). He gave a very good reason for possible downside ahead as banking sector is very weak. I always take his words seriously and in view of that I can safely assume some real bad days for bulls ahead.

If you are an investor - a person who wants to build wealth by investing in assets then my advice is buy gold and a lot of it. The only good asset at this time is GOLD. And what a golden opportunity this is as for few days GOLD has fallen to very attractive levels.

I will update my Technical Analysis very soon... till then enjoy.