Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Big Divergence Nifty vs Nifty Futures
I did not post my analysis yesterday for Nifty. The reason is I got two different views for Nifty and Nifty Futures. Yesterday, Nifty showed a breakout but the futures did not. Here I present two daily charts - identical, of Nifty (on the right side) and Nifty Futures (on the left side). Just look at the charts and see how big is dichotomy between the futures and spot.
For Nifty, the following can be said:
1. Nifty is well above the Main Downtrend Line - Line 1 and the Previous Important Support Line - Line 3. (I have just not plotted Line 2 for obvious reasons)
2. EMA sequence is bullish for Nifty, 34 Period EMA is above 55 Period EMA.
3. Volume of today (down day) is more.
For Nifty Futures, however, the following can be said:
1. Nifty Futures are still below the Main Downtrend Line - Line 1.
2. EMA sequence for Nifty Futures is bearish, 34 Period EMA is below 55 Period EMA.
However, for both of them, the Current Uptrend Line is holding.
This dichotomy has spoiled the party for bulls and looking at Nifty Future, bears must be the happy lot. This can be an ongoing consolidation but my view is not that bullish, at least till the time Nifty Futures also show clear breakout. The FIIs are again heavy sellers for today and DIIs negatively neutral. I will put my bet on more downside and a possibility of new lows unless Nifty Futures also go above Line 1.