Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Nifty on a Breakout?

Today Nifty gained a almost two and a half percent with better than previous seven days' volume. Is this a breakout? are those days of Bear Market over? Let us see how it shows up on daily chart.

As we can see, Nifty rose to close above 4500 with good volumes and almost penetrated the Main Downtrend Line - Line 1 and the Previous Important Support Line (which is acting as resistance now) - Line 2. Lot of people have already termed it as breakout and are now betting that the Bear Market is over, but, as I have been maintaining it in my past posts, the Main Downtrend Line - Line 1 is still holding. Let me conclude my observation :-

The things favouring bulls:
1. Nifty is above the Secondary Downtrend Line - Line 2.
2. The volumes of UP days are better than the DOWN days for some time.
3. The Current Support Line - Line 4 is maintaining.

The things favouring bears:
1. Nifty has still not crossed Line 1 and Line 3.
2. The FIIs have been selling almost continuously and have sold more than
Rs. 1400 Cr in last three days.

Conclusion: I will still wait for the close and consolidation above Line 1. My idea that this week we may see a clear direction looks to be setting up.

Disclaimer: My "analysis" here is analysis in letter and spirit and should not be taken as "trading advice". Trading in Stock Markets is full of risks and one should consult professional advice before initiating any trade.

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