Sunday, August 24, 2008

Nifty and S&P 500 Analysis for 25th August 2008

Nifty Futures
On Friday, the NSE Nifty Future closed just below the 200 Period SMA on Hourly Chart. As I posted here earlier, during the day it tried to get past this 200 SMA but could not succeed and in my opinion this is not good for bulls.

Looking at the Daily chart, Nifty Future started a new down leg on 12th Aug and so far maintaining it. The EMA sequence is also bearish as 34 EMA (the red curved line) is below 55 EMA (the blue curved line). I am expecting Nifty Futures to open slightly up on global cues on Monday and then start moving downward.

US Markets - S&P 500 Futures
For the US markets, the S&P 500 Futures, it went past my expected level of 1285 and closed above 1291, just above the resistance zone (see the downtrend line) giving signal that bulls are still in the game for some more time. The latest uptrend line was violated on 19th Aug and on Friday it reclaimed it. The move on Monday is going to be crucial and only then we should look for the short term trend/direction.

The EMA sequence is bearish as 34 Period EMA(red curved line) below 55 EMA (blue curved line) but it managed to close above 55 period EMA which is again a cheering thing for bulls.

If S&P 500 Future manages to remain up, it is possible it tries to conquer the 200 Period SMA around 1340.

My conclusion is we should carefully track Monday's movement and decide accordingly. The Hourly Chart after two hours of trade on Monday should give some clearer picture for short term.

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