Nifty Future Analysis based on Hourly Chart

Friends, first my apologies for not posting for several days. My schedule was unexpectedly changed and I had to stay away from markets.

Looking at the Hourly Chart of Nifty Future (at the time of writing this post Indian markets are open) I find the following:

1. Nifty Future is very short term uptrend but short term downtrend as seen by the EMA sequence on hourly - 5 EMA(gray curved line) above 13 EMA(green curved line) and both above 55 EMA(blue curved line) BUT 34 EMA(red curved line) still below 55 EMA.
2. The trend line joining high of 4th Nov and 9th Nov when extended, is near 200 SMA on hourly chart, which means the range from 2890 to 2920 should prove to be a big resistance.
3. The Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of the fall from 4th Nov high to 20th Nov low comes at 2914, coincidentally near the above point and in the resistance region.
   

The above observation clearly states that I expect a good resistance at the current levels(2820) through 2920. If Nifty Future manages to get past 2920 with good volume then short term trend will change upwards and bears need to be cautious. I would like to initiate a short around 2890 (if it comes ) and strict Stop Loss at 2930.

Disclaimer: Trading in stock markets is full of risks and can lead to substantial losses. A professional advice before initiating any trade is highly recommended. Anyone acting on my suggestion should know that I will not be responsible for any loss.