In last few days we have seen so many things and that inspired me to add subjects other than markets to this post.
We saw Global Markets doing nothing significantly except one change - Indian Markets unwilling to go up even when global cues were good. For Nifty Futures, my stand is still for the Ascending Triangle which is intact so far.
Politics and The Messiah
I was not the only one surprised when they annoounced Nobel Prize for Peace to US president Mr. Obama. In fact, he himself was surprised. I have always had good respect for Mr. Obama, except for his economic policies, but in my humble opinion this announcement of awarding Nobel Prize for Peace is actually a big trouble for him. The Nobel Prize Committee has made him officailly Messiah and tied his hands at a time he is really surrounded by problems Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Russia.
Iran and its nuclear program is no secret to world and so is the position of US. A nuclear weapon capable Iran is bigger danger to US than what mainstream media discusses. Iran capable of nuclear weapons is direct threat to Israel and surprisingly, the rest of Arab World and they rely on US to counter those fears. I know, many readers are going to argue against this opinion as they have been misled by mainstream media that Arab World is against Israel and they hate US. That is what we have been made to think like, but not true.
Russia, since Putin took charge, has shown its willingness to stand against US, esp when US desire of expanding NATO to states of Europe that Russia has influence on. We do remember Russia's attack on Georgia last year which was a clear symbol of Russia declaring its intentions. Moreover, US needs Russia in order to fight war in Afghanistan and counter Iranian nuclear program. Recent decision to backtrack from deployment of missile defense system in Poland by Mr. Obama was probably his side of concession to Russia which in return would allow supplies to Afghanistan through its territory. Another thing that he would have reslished is Russian support for sanctions against Iran so that a strike on Iraninan nuclear sites could be avoided. But, Russia has not promised that as yet and is not likely to do either. To make things worse there was a 'news' about Israel's Prime Minister visited Russia and showed them a list of Russian scientists involved in Iranian nuclear program. Also, there was this 'leak' that there is a secret nuclear site in Iran being built. The reaction by Iranian president Ahmadinejad was this - President Barack Obama's accusation simply "adds to the list of issues to which the United States owes the Iranian nation an apology over." This is like challenging Mr. Obama to "do what he can". This shows how confidant Iranian president is about Mr. Obama being a weak US president.
The situation is getting worse than what we can imagine as Mr. Obama can either keep quiet or strike. NOW, keeping quiet and letting all this happen may not be the best thing to do for a US president, he can not let the label of 'weak' stick on to him. Then, striking Iran at the time when he is awarded Nobel Peace Prize is equally difficult. This is why I think he is more than surprised about this announcement of Nobel Prize.
One idea that comes to my mind is let the luck factor bear the burden, we can assume Mr. Obama is plain unlucky to have countered these circumstances. In fact, we can even blame his election as bad luck for him given the situation he had when he received presidential vote. Economic situation was bad and there were so many expectations from him. But, this idea fades away when I see how he reacted to those conditions. In fact, he had the greatest opportunity of lifetime! Yes, he could have done the best job by doing one thing - stay away and let the natural forces of Creative Destruction take their course. But, he, like all politicians, chose to intervene. Although this active intervention looks like things are returning to normal, the truth is there is a massive debt unwinding under way and these interventions will only postpone the real crisis.
I like him as a person who has a desire to change the world for good, but, I doubt circumstances will let him swim through troubled waters.